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Guyana's foreign reserves plummet, GYD depreciates

The Central Bank’s Q3 2013 review revealed that gold, diamond, rice, and lumber output increased, while sugar, fish, poultry and bauxite output de- clined. Compared to an overall surplus of USD57.8 million in Q3 2012, a Bal- ance of Payments deficit of USD220.4 million was recoded in Q3 2013, which would have contributed to the steep decline seen in the level of net interna- tional reserves. We estimate import cover at just over 3 months at the end of September 2013.

The economy is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2013, accord- ing to the Central Bank. On January 31st 2014, the exchange rate stood at GYD208.44 : USD1.00, up from an average of GYD205.42 : USD1.00 in Septem- ber 2013. The IMF’s release on conclusion of their Article IV consultation also projected growth at 4.8% in 2013, with inflation at 3.5%, and an overall fiscal deficit at 5.2% of GDP. The IMF expects growth to soften to 4.3% in 2014.

SOURCE: RBC Caribbean Economic Report, January 2014

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