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Friday, July 28 2017 @ 02:44 AM AST

Weather forecast: Storm's worst already past Trinidad and Tobago

COMMENTARY

Although schools will be closed tomorrow, Caribbean Airlines flights have been cancelled, sailings to Tobago will now officially be not happening, the worst of Tropical Storm Bret is pretty much what you are seeing now, and in a few hours will be behind Trinidad and Tobago.

Satellite images from the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami show the storm dispersing as it it now grazing T&T and losing its eye.

Bearing in mind that the nature of forecasting is that one can be wrong, my forecast is continued rain, maybe some thunder later, for sure some flooding and a few roofs flying off (not because of the force of the storm because our infrastructure money was mostly lost to corruption).

Heavy rainfall is still expected over the next five days, however, but no major storm will be hitting T&T any time soon. The rains to come later tonight will help deepen the pleasure of sleepers.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS FL AL022017
200 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT IS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.8N 57.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that
country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
8.8 North, longitude 57.8 West. The system is moving toward the west
near 25 mph (41 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-northwest is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands and
near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves
through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and
Tuesday.

Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to
show signs of organization, and additional development is likely
during the next day before the system interacts with Venezuela.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
portions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the
eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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