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Tuesday, October 24 2017 @ 05:39 AM AST

After August visit, IMF sees Trinidad & Tobago not on road to recovery



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday (Oct. 10) released its latest projections for the Trinidad & Tobago economy since August 4. http://news.co.tt/public_html/article...4162922936 The conspicuous omission of an estimated growth rate of the Trinidad and Tobago economy in that August 4 release was offset by yesterday's release of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report in which the IMF revised its projection of growth for T&T in 2017 downward to -3.2% from 0.3% in April 2017, the last report before an IMF mission visited the country in August for the IMF's annual Article IV consultation (out of which the IMF will produce a country report).

The IMF also revised its 2016 estimated growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) of Trinidad and Tobago downward from -5.1% in its April 2017 WEO to -5.4% in the WEO out today.

The downward revisions are significant as the initial projection signaled a possible end to, or slowing down of the ongoing recession in Trinidad and Tobago, represented by the April 2017 forecast of 0.3% real GDP growth rate for this year.



- - - BEFORE - - -

WEO APRIL 2017 EXCERPT:



SOURCE: IMF WEO April 2017


- - - AFTER - - -


SOURCE: IMF WEO October 2017



Classified as an Emerging Market Economy, the category just below Advanced Economies, Trinidad and Tobago is however below the Caribbean average. On average, Caribbean economies this year are projected to grow by 2.8%, and are estimated to have grown 3.4% last year.



TRINIDAD & TOBAGO WELL BELOW THE CARIBBEAN AVERAGE:



SOURCE: IMF WEO October 2017




IMF SEES NO MAJOR UPWARD MOVEMENT OF INFLATION THOUGH



SOURCE: IMF WEO October 2017




BUT THE IMF DOES SEE A TRINIDAD & TOBAGO THAT IMPORTS INCREASINGLY MORE THAN IT EXPORTS



SOURCE: IMF WEO October 2017







VIEW ALSO:



From a Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago presentation http://news.co.tt/public_html/article...8051658832


From a Ministry of Finance presentation http://news.co.tt/public_html/article...9080253643

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